World Series Rotation and Roster Questions

Questions abound a day away from game one of the World Series. Rob Neyer, responding to Dan Rosenheck the NY Times, who suggests Girardi keep his options open:

... I wonder if any manager in the history of ever has gone into a World Series with such flexibility. No, I'm sure that many of them have. Just not in the last few decades. My guess is that Girardi will announce, any moment now, that 1) Sabathia will start Games 1, 4 and (if necessary) 7, and that both

A.J. Burnett

and

Andy Pettitte

will make their second Series starts on short rest. Like this: 10/28 -- Sabathia 10/29 -- Burnett 10/30 -- off 10/31 -- Pettitte 11/ 1 -- Sabathia 11/ 2 -- Burnett 11/ 3 -- off 11/ 4 -- Pettitte 11/ 5 -- Sabathia Which would be, though not as radical as holding Sabathia in reserve, still pretty radical. I don't know how often managers enter a World Series figuring on four short-rest starts, but I don't believe it's happened much lately. The only real alternative -- assuming Sabathia's going to start three times -- would be

Chad Gaudin

in Game 5, but does Girardi believe that Gaudin on roughly a month's rest is better than Pettitte on three days?

That's a pretty brutal pitching schedule if the series actually goes seven games.  And, as usual, weather is a concern as game one looks iffy.  Remove that off day on the 30th and this plan gets all blowns up. Put a rain day into the calendar and suddenly the rotation looks like this: 10/28 -- rain 10/29 -- Sabathia 10/30 -- Burnett 10/31 -- Pettitte 11/ 1 -- Gaudin 11/ 2 -- Sabathia 11/ 3 -- off 11/ 4 -- Burnett 11/ 5 -- Pettitte Pettitte pitching game seven wouldn't be the worst scenario in the world.  Having Sabathia pitch it would obviously be better. There's two key points here that Girardi has to consider when making this decision as Neyer points out:

1. Can Pettitte and Burnett handle three days rest effectively?

2. Can Chad Gaudin be effective after having pitched one inning since the end of the season?

Chad Gaudin has thrown 13 pitches in a game since October 3rd.  I can't tell you what he's done on the sidelines during those 24 days but I will assume it isn't as effective as facing live batters.  Chad's a big boy and I'm pretty sure he would remember what it's like to throw to people pretty quickly.  I just don't think a right-handed back of the rotation starter on 24 days rest has much business trying to pitch to a strong left-handed lineup like the Phillies. Surprisingly, though, the Phillies have actually fared a little bit better against left-handed pitching:

Split	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
vs RHP as RH	1672	41	135	312	.252	.320	.397	.717	589	.291
vs RHP as LH	2921	115	270	506	.267	.342	.472	.814	1218	.291
vs LHP as RH	1018	38	105	148	.253	.333	.450	.783	404	.264
vs LHP as LH	727	30	79	189	.240	.339	.454	.793	282	.292
vs RHP	4593	156	405	818	.262	.334	.445	.779	1807	.291
vs LHP	1745	68	184	337	.248	.335	.452	.787	686	.274

The split isn't nearly as wide as I expected.  The Phillies left-handed hitters have hit right-handed pitching pretty well, but they've done pretty good against left-handed pitchers, too. Consider also Ryan Howard's career platoon splits:

Split	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
vs RHP as LH	2085	169	302	507	.307	.409	.661	1.070	1159	.338
vs LHP as LH	1060	53	104	371	.226	.310	.444	.754	415	.305

His 2009 splits are even wider apart than that (1.086 vs .653 OPS).  Considering the effect Howard's extremes have on the team's numbers, once you get past him in the lineup, the Phillies hit lefties okay. So, what should Girardi do regarding his rotation?  We've covered Sabathia's history on short rest. Here's Pettitte's and Burnett's numbers on three days rest as compared to four:

Pettitte
Split	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
3 Days,GS	4	6	4.15	14	86.2	86	6	38	69	367	1.431	7.2	1.82
4 Days,GS	150	80	3.90	281	1817.1	1874	168	561	1341	7700	1.34	6.6	2.39
Burnett
Split	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
3 Days,GS	4	0	2.33	4	27	19	2	10	24	112	1.074	8	2.40
4 Days,GS	60	46	3.59	140	924.1	825	86	366	896	3901	1.288	8.7	2.45

Burnett only has 27 innings to judge on, which isn't a lot.  It is encouraging, however, that he didn't implode in those 27 innings.  His strike out and walk numbers stayed close to average but he gave up a few less hits (which could just be the luck of the small sample). Pettitte has fared not quite as well.  His strike out rate is better but his walk rate is elevated.  Again, it's only 86.2 innings so it's difficult to make concrete judgments.  We're looking for extreme abnormalities more than subtle differences. I wouldn't be adverse to Girardi going with Neyer's proposed schedule, assuming rain does not get in the way.  If Pettitte pitches on three days rest, he has to be on a short leash.  When Andy doesn't have it, he very rarely reclaims it.  I would keep Chad Gaudin ready to fill in for long relief. Burnett is a tough read because just when you think he's done for the day, he finds his control and starts pitching effectively (see ALCS game 5).  He's more than capable of giving innings and has been surprisingly healthy this year. I can't say there should be no concern about Sabathia doing two starts back to back on short rest.  Of course there should be concern.  Despite the lauding of the press, he isn't Superman and, at some point, he will tire. What needs to be balanced here is the difference in expected performance between Chad Gaudin in game four and Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte combining for four possible starts on three days rest.  Are the gains that much greater by having Gaudin replaced by Sabathia on short rest that it justifies altering the rest of the rotations schedule as well? That's almost impossible to say.  I don't know what Gaudin is right now.  He's a pitcher with little workload lately.  What happens in these games will go a long way toward determining how well this short rest schedule will work.  Girardi will need to lean on his pen earlier in some of these games whenever possible.  There is no reason for any of these pitchers to be throwing late into a game if they have a comfortable lead.  If he is going to throw guys off their normal routines, he needs to at least try and protect them in their first starts. There has been some suggestion that the Yankees should play it by ear.  What does that mean in a seven game series, exactly?  If the Yankees are up 3-0, they can afford to give up a game?  What if they're up 2-1?  Down 2-1?  Down 3-0? The only scenario where it makes even the slightest bit of sense to not throw your best available pitcher out there is if the Yankees are up 3-0.  Even then, do you really want to enter a World Series game, one of seven, where you're not fielding the best team you can? I say go on the short rest. -- There is absolutely no reason for the Yankees to carry Freddy Guzman on the World Series roster.  In fact, there was little reason for him to be on the ALCS roster except to give Girardi options to use incorrectly. Eric Hinske needs to be added for the games in Philadelphia.  Matsui will also be on the bench since there will be no DH, giving the Yankees two very good power bats for the late innings in a tiny ballpark.  It's silly that Hinske hasn't had any at-bats since October 4th since he would have made a better pinch hitting option than Francisco Cervelli, but those are the breaks when you're team carries two pinch runners and three catchers. -- Speaking of which, the Yankees should only carry two catchers this round.  Cervelli never actually caught and was only used as a pinch hitter.  Get him out of there.  It might be smart to carry an extra reliever in Cervelli's spot to cover a possible three days rest rotation.  More options earlier in games could be helpful. -- Need more reasons to drop Cervelli from the roster? AJ Burnett could be pitching game five in Philadelphia.  If Jose Molina catches him, that means the eighth and ninth hitters that day will be... Jose Molina and AJ Burnett. I think we learned in game five of the ALCS something that we already knew: AJ Burnett's control problems are not caused by his catcher.  Burnett had his worst run of the season that game, giving up four runs in the first before even recording an out.  Behind the plate calling the shots was Jose Molina. If Girardi wants to start Molina for Burnett in game two, I'm not going to argue because, frankly, I've had it with the argument.  However, as bad as Posada has been at the plate, there's

no

reason why he shouldn't be behind it in Philadelphia when Burnett pitches.  At-bats are at a premium and game five could be a pivotal game.  Posada's bat needs to be in that lineup. Conversely, if Molina does start in Philadelphia and he's pinch hit for, it's going to be by Posada.  Where does Cervelli fit in this roster?  He has absolutely no reason to be on this squad except as an injury backup when a second catcher has entered the game. That, my friends, is a waste of a roster spot.  You're backup catcher is your injury backup, not your third string AA catcher. -- Let's not overreact about Phil Hughes performance in game five of the ALCS.  He's been a bit up and down in the playoffs.  It happens.  The guy was lights out for most of the season. I've speculated that he could be a bit tired.  That could certainly be the case.  That doesn't mean that every starter needs to go 7.1 innings and hand it off to Rivera.  Even Rivera is going to give up a run here and there.  Abuse him and he'll give up more. Hughes will be fine.  Let's not suddenly pretend that the guy hasn't been a great pitcher for four months because of a rough outing or two. -- In completely unrelated baseball news, Mark McGwire is returning to the St. Louis Cardinals as a hitting coach. This strikes me as a silly move for the Cardinals.  Teams often have to balance on the field performance with the personalities and controversies that come along with certain players (think Milton Bradley, Gary Sheffield, the still unemployed Barry Bonds).  What is the sense in a team as successful and as heralded as the Cardinals to invite such controversy into their clubhouse for a hitting coach? The positive or negative effect a hitting coach has on a squad is difficult to quantify but, on the whole, it's usually considered minimal.  So, what's the benefit of having a controversy magnet like McGwire around your clubhouse, especially with little experience coaching in a team environment? I'm sure McGwire gets a home town discount when it comes to pessimism about his career.  After awhile, though, seeing his scrawny unpumped up frame on television on a regular basis is going to have people asking the same questions over and over.  Any guesses as to which network will show a side by side of playing McGwire versus coaching McGwire? If you're the Cardinals and you're going to invite this nonsense into your house, you had better be smart about it.  The Cardinals should demand as part of the deal that McGwire lay it all out in a press conference on the first day of spring training and move on. He won't, though.  If he wasn't going to talk to Congress, he's not going to talk to the press.  And McGwire will spend the rest of his life insisting he doesn't want to talk about the past.  The man who was part of a dynamic duo that electrified the sport in 1998 and heralded as an ambassador for the game will continue to hide, convincing all of us more and more that he used PEDs. Get it over with, Mark.  You're career is already tainted.  Own up to your mistakes and give us a chance to like you again. -- We'll be chatting again during the World Series.  Thankfully, I think my kids will be done trick or treating by the start of game three (bravo once more, FOX...).  We've had a great turnout and lots of fun so if you haven't joined us already, come on by.