Vazquez To The Yankees: Our Analysis

Ian: When the Red Sox improved their rotation last week, acquiring the services of arguably the best starting pitcher on the free agent market in John Lackey, Yankee fans fretted.  Suddenly the Sox boasted a rotation brimming with three number-one starter types in Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Lackey.  They had solid depth as well, with a presumably healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka, steadily improving Clay Buchholz, and the ageless Tim Wakefield.  Beyond those six are young guys like Junichi Tazawa, Michael Bowden, and the rapidly ascending Casey Kelly. Naturally, we all waited for the Yankees to fire a return salvo.  Tuesday morning, they did just that in trading Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and highly-regarded prospect Arodys Vizcaino to Atlanta for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan. Yankee fans still have a bad taste in their mouth when it comes to Vazquez.  Acquired before the 2004 season from the Expos for Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate, Yankees' GM Brian Cashman expected that the Yankees had bolstered their rotation for the present and the future.  Just 27 years old, Vazquez had a world of promise, coming off a 2003 season in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and struck out 241 batters in 230.1 IP.  A young, durable power pitcher was exactly what the Yankees rotation needed.  Javy started strong, posting a  3.56 ERA and a 2.97 K/BB ratio in the first half en route to his first and only All Star appearance. Then the bottom fell out.  In the second half, Vazquez put up a 6.92 ERA, his walk to strikeout ratio plummeting to 1.96.  His strikeouts per 9 IP fell from 7.2 to 6.2.  By season's end, Joe Torre had all but lost faith in Javy, giving him just one postseason start in which he was shelled by the Twins.  Things didn't go much better in 2 ALCS relief appearances against the Red Sox, culminating in the first-pitch grand slam he gave up to Johnny Damon in Game 7, a blow that essentially put the final nail in the Yankees' coffin. Vazquez was traded in the offseason for the rotting corpse of Randy Johnson and struggled to deliver on his initial promise despite retaining his strikeout stuff.  Javy is and always has been a very strange pitcher, with the stuff and peripherals of a number one starter, but only the fleeting season or two in which he's delivered the numbers to back it up.  He has a career K/9 ratio of 8.1 while walking just 2.3 batters per 9 - a terrific 3.4 K/BB ratio.  He's one of only two pitchers to rack up 2000 strikeouts this decade (Randy Johnson is the other).  He's always been incredibly durable. Yet his career is pock-marked with ERAs that just don't fit the profile of a true number one.  From 2004-2006, he was a below average pitcher, putting up an ERA+ of 97 (100 is average) despite a healthy K/9 rate of 7.7 and K/BB rate of 3.25.  He has a career 3.83 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching; learn how it's calculated here), but a career ERA of 4.19.  Vazquez does give up a ton of HRs - 1.2 per 9IP career - and that's something to worry about as he moves to New Yankee Stadium. Last season in Atlanta, Vazquez enjoyed an improbable return to form, with an ERA of 2.87 and 238 K in 219.1 IP.  By ERA+, it was the best season of his career (143).  Hitters had a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .297, below his career mark of .309 but not exceptionally so.  And while he was toiling in the NL for the first time since 2005, 33 of his 219 IP came against the Phillies - the most IP he had against any opponent. In those 33 IP, he posted a 3.00 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning.  Against the top 3 offenses in the NL last season, Vazquez put up a 2.83 ERA in 51 IP, recording 52 Ks.  He was not merely a product of pitching in the weaker league. So who is Javy Vazquez?  Is he the guy we saw in the first half of 2004?  The second half of 2004?  The dominant 2009 version?  The answer is probably something in between.  Let's base our expectations not on one or two seasons, but on the whole body of work.  His yearly averages are a 4.19 ERA over 219 IP.  Would you take that from your #3 or #4 starter in the AL East?  Absolutely.  Expectations will always be high for Javy because he has the pure stuff and command of an ace.  This go round in New York, he doesn't have to be one.  Maybe that's for the best.  He's signed for one more year at $11.5 million, then is likely to walk away and let the Yankees collect some high draft picks based on his Type-A status.  For 2010, he gives the Yankees a pretty fearsome foursome that can at least compete with Boston's. As for what the Yankees gave up - we all know about Melky Cabrera.  An incredibly streaky hitter prone to extreme slumps, Cabrera offers little upside over what we've already seen.  He is what he is - an average defensive CF with a strong but intermittently accurate arm and a slightly below average bat.  He needs to stay in CF to stick as a regular since offensively, he profiles poorly as a corner outfielder.  A move to the NL could boost his numbers, but not significantly enough to make him a star or even an above-average regular.  With Jason Heyward, arguably the best prospect in baseball, almost ready to take over in CF for the Braves, Melky's time as a starter may be brief.  We should take some time to reflect on the energy and enthusiasm Melky brought to the Yankees though - as replaceable as he may be as a player, he had a strong personality and it was fun to watch him play.  He had several big hits for the Yankees this past season and seemed genuinely well-liked by his teammates.  He deserves thanks for his contribution to a World Championship team.  He earned his ring. Mike Dunn projected to be one of two left-handed setup men for the Yankees this coming season, and reportedly was a sticking point in the Granderson trade negotiations - Cashman seemingly felt more comfortable parting with Phil Coke.  As a general rule, I don't get too upset over relievers being dealt; unless they profile as a closer, they pretty much grow on trees.  Still, Dunn has mid-90's velocity, rare for a lefty, and could have been a nice matchup guy in NY.  His control was always going to be an issue, but I imagine he'll have good success against left-handed hitters in the majors. It's the loss of Arodys Vizcaino that hurts.  Just 19, Arodys has dominated the low minors in his two years as a pro, with more than a strikeout per inning and an ERA under 2.  Baseball America rated him as the Yankees #3 prospect and listed him as having the best curveball in the entire minor league system.  Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as the Yankees' #2 prospect.  Obviously, a 19 year-old with power stuff comes with the usual caveats - TINSTAAPP and all that - but it's tough to lose a guy with the upside to pitch in the top half of the rotation.  Still, Vizcaino has yet to throw even a single pitch in a full-season league and is at least 3-4 years away from contributing in the Majors if his development continues on a steady path. Overall, I like this trade for the Yankees.  They walked a tightrope in October with just 3 reliable starters on their roster; Cashman has shown the ability to recognize that even a World Series champion can stand to improve themselves.  The deal leaves some holes in the Yankee roster, but these issues will be sorted out in due time.  I rate this deal a solid B+. Scott: It's been awhile since we've seen a trade as divisive as this one, at least in YankeeLand.  There's still a lot of fans left with a bitter taste in their mouths over Javy Vazquez. I like the trade for one simple reason:  innings.  The Yankees had the opportunity to get someone for the back half of the rotation that could reliably throw 200 innings this year, a major upgrade over the three-headed Mitre/Gaudin/Aceves monster they played with last season.  A strong number four pitcher means less reliance on Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte to go deep into games to protect an over-worked bullpen.  As an added bonus, you're running a guy out there who would give a modest offense a chance to win every fifth day; put the Yankees behind him and Vazquez could have a very good year. Vazquez probably won't duplicate his numbers from 2009.  The shift to the AL alone probably ensures that before he even throws a pitch.  But he will be an effective starter who has averaged eight strikeouts per nine innings over his career. Of course, the flipside of a trade is what you give up.  In the big picture, the Yankees gave up very little.  The addition of Curtis Granderson made Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner an expendable part with neither player profiling very well as a left-fielder.  I've argued previously that Melky should be the candidate to go so I'm not exactly broken-hearted to see this deal happen. Ian profiled Vizcaino and Dunn above and I can't really add much to the discussion.  Dunn was an expendable part and Vizcaino still has to make the long trek to the big leagues by maturing, improving, and staying healthy.  Those three things are harder to obtain than you think.  Look at Joba Chamberlain as exhibit A, two year ago the next sure thing and now, most fans would trade him. It's hard to fault Cashman for giving up the package he did.  None of these three players would have had a major impact on the 2010 Yankees.  Maybe Melky could have put up slightly better numbers but he still would have been below average offensively in left field. There are two little secrets at the back end of this deal.  The first is that Vazquez could turn into a first round pick and a sandwich pick if the Yankees offer him arbitration after the 2010 season and he walks.  The second is that Boone Logan actually has a fourth option according to Joel Sherman, which means even though he is arbitration eligible, he has to make the team coming out of spring training.  That gives the Yankees a little bit of financial flexibility if they're not happy with what they see. This is a great trade for the Yankees and a head-scratcher for the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves must figure they're not wholly in contention this year and wanted to assemble parts for the future.  Where Melky Cabrera fits into that plan is anyone's guess. And for those people crying over spilled Melk, be honest about who Cabrera is as a baseball player.  He is an average hitter at best with a weak OBP who hasn't been able to put it together at the major league level.  He's had some fine moments but then so did Luis Sojo.  Melky was going to see even less playing time this season with the addition of Curtis Granderson.  Maybe he'll get a chance to prove something in Atlanta.  And he was due probably $3 to $3.5 million in arbitration, making the choice to stick with Gardner that much easier. It remains to be seen whether the Yankees will actually go with Gardner or Jamie Hoffmann in left.  Cashman has been crying poor today, not so different from similar pleads before signing Mark Teixeira last season.  It wouldn't kill the Yankees to keep left field as it is since the defense would be fantastic.  Another bat and decent defense would probably be better.  As it is, they have little depth for the outfield and could use either a more prolific starter or more depth. Since we're grading, I also give this trade a B+.