Varitek is Worth the Gamble?

In a moment of desperatation to come up with some baseball news today, I stumbled upon this piece at the Boston Globe:

The Red Sox offered arbitration to two of their free agents, catcher

Jason Varitek

and pitcher

Paul Byrd

, before last night's midnight deadline to do so. Varitek and Byrd are the only Sox free agents to be classified as Type A or Type B, with Varitek an A and Byrd a B. Varitek is almost certain not to accept arbitration, as he (and agent

Scott Boras

) have in mind a multiyear contract.

I've had it in mind that my wife might get me a Lexus for Christmas, like the ones you see on TV with the big red bow on them.  'Tis the season for absurdly expensive gift giving.  I think I stand a better chance at getting that Lexus than Varitek does getting a multiyear deal. I'm having a hard time following the reasoning here by the Red Sox, unless they are aware of an unfabricated suitor for Varitek that we all are unaware of.  I just have no idea who that suitor could be or why Varitek would be attractive for multiple years. These are varitek's last three years: Year    AVG  OBP  SLG  BAbip

2006   .238 .325 .400 .280

2007  

.255 .367 .421 .313

2008  

.220 .313 .359 .276

The first question is whether 2007 is the aberrition or the rule.  I'll hedge my bets and say it's somewhere in between.   It may not be reasonable to expect Varitek to have as bad a season as he did in 2008, but that seems more likely than him having a season equal or better than 2007.  And what will he do for multiple years? Does it makes sense for the Red Sox to take a gamble on one more year of Varitek?  If Boras actually let him accept arbitration, the Red Sox would likely have to pay him the $10.5 million he made in 2008.  That might be a better payday than Varitek will see anywhere else, especially if this market is dipping southward as people are saying.  If you're Varitek, it might be worth taking the one last big payday and dealing with next year when it comes.  Varitek most likely won't be a $10 million dollar player next year, despite being the captain, clubhouse leader, and supposed greatest backstop to ever handle a staff.  He might be worth it if it gives the Sox another year to figure out what they're doing behind the plate. Will Boras let him do that?  It's not likely unless Boras reads that his commission will be smaller on the open market. The bigger question I have as it pertains to Yankee-Land is: if the Red Sox are willing to take an arbitration chance on a 37 year old $10 million catcher, why won't the Yankees do the same for Andy Pettitte?  Pettitte's upside seems a little higher than Varitek, and while his salary would be higher as well, it will be much harder for the Yankees to find a pitcher of Andy's caliber and plug him in for a year than it would for the Red Sox to find a decent defensive catcher who posted a 73 OPS+ last season. The Yankees moves yesterday continue to boggle the mind...