Revisiting the Young and the Restless

About a year ago at our old digs, I recapped the story of three young and frustrated ballplayers.  All were talented, all were sophomores, and all were a bit peeved at the lack of respect (ie MONEY) that they were receiving from their bosses. Here we are a full season later and my, how things have changed.  Let's recap the contestants: 1.  Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers

2007 salary: $415,000 2008 salary: $670,000 Money quote:

"I'm not happy about it at all.  The fact I've had to be renewed two years in a row,I'm not happy about it because there's a lot of guys who have the same amountof time that I do who have done a lot less and are getting paid a lot more.  Butmy time is going to come. It's going to come quick, too."

2.  Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles

2007 salary: $400,000 2008 salary: $455,000 Money quote:

"That's just how the Orioles feel. I don't have much of a choice. I'm just going to have

to deal with it."

3.  Jonathan Papelbon - Boston Red Sox

2007 salary: $425,500 2008 salary: $775,000 Money quote:

"I feel a certain obligation not only to myself and my family to make the money that

I deserve but for the game of baseball.  Mariano Rivera has been doing it for the past

10 years and with me coming up behind him I feel a certain obligation to do the same.

"It's a tough situation for me right now.  I feel like with me being at the top of my position,

I feel like that standard needs to be set and I'm the one to set that standard and I

don't think that the Red Sox are really necessarily seeing eye to eye with me on that subject

right now."

A year can make a significant difference in a player's salary, especially when they jump from two years of indentured servitude to arbitration eligible.  And, despite only averaging about $600k between the three of them last season, these guys are cashing in now. Prince Fielder has asked the Milwaukee Brewers for $8 million while the Brewers are offering $6 million.  Prince stands a reasonable chance of getting his asking price, if not the happy medium of $7 million.  After a dominant 2007 hitting 50 home runs and slugging a nifty .618 percentage, 2008 brought Prince a bit back to Earth with 34 home runs and a .507 SLG.  Of greater concern is exactly how much of Fielder's SLG depends on his home runs.  Fielder has averaged about 33 doubles the last three seasons, which isn't bad, but doesn't seem likely to go up anytime soon for a man his size.  His OBP has been anywhere from .347 to .395 over the three years, the peak coming (of course) in his 50 home run season. Fielder has the potential to be a very good offensive first baseman for a long, long time, but you have to figure out where his monster 2007 fits amongst his other two seasons.  Always hedging the bet, you would figure he's somewhere in between and, approaching only 25 this season, has the potential to get even better. It would make sense for the Brewers to try and get Fielder locked up into his free agent years like Baltimore did with our second candidate, Nick Markakis.  It would make sense for Fielder, too, for as good as he looks right now and will probably be for the next few years, at 5' 11" and weighing in conservatively at 270 pounds, there has to be some concern.  Prince's dad, Cecil Fielder, peaked around the ages of 26 and 27 with even lower double totals, then maintained an average OPS+ of 112 through the age of 33.  Prince may discover the same fate which means at 25 he only has a couple of peak years left. Nick Markakis shows a little differently than Fielder.  Markakis has been watching his numbers rise the last two seasons after his rookie year in 2006.  His numbers haven't been dominant (.306/.406/.491 in 2008) but the steady increase and terrific OBP mean Markakis could be on the verge of a breakout season.  Add the fact that he's an above average outfielder and Markakis makes a nice piece for an Orioles team that's constantly trying to find their way. This week, Markakis signed a 6 year, $66.1 million dollar deal.  The deets:

The agreement covers three years the 25-year-old would have been eligible for arbitration and the first three after he would have been eligible for free agency. Markakis hit a career-high .306 with 20 homers and 87 RBIs for the Orioles last season, his third in the majors. He played in 157 games, drew 99 walks and led all AL outfielders with 17 assists. His deal calls for a $2.1 million signing bonus: $1 million payable upon approval and $1.1 million in April 2010. Markakis gets $3 million this season, $6.75 million in 2010, $10.25 million in 2011, $12 million in 2012 and $15 million each in 2013 and 2014. The deal includes a $17.5 million mutual option for 2015. He would get a $2 million buyout if the club declines but no buyout if he turns it down -- which would reduce the total value of the agreement to $64.1 million.

These types of contracts are all the rage these days and for good reason.  It's a great deal for everyone involved, although the team does assume a bit of risk on the backend.  The player sells off their arbitration years and a few free agency years at a good salary.  No nasty arbitration aftertaste for the club or the player.  In the case of Markakis, the Orioles have themselves what could be a star outfielder for years to come. Then there's Jonathan Papelbon.  I had the most issues with Papelbon's tirade last spring just for the sheer audacity of a person to say such things.  At the time, the guy had pitched exactly 160 and 2/3's innings in the majors, yet he said "I feel like with me being at the top of my position, I feel like that

standard needs to be set and I'm the one to set that standard."  I love it when players declare themselves at the top of their positions, especially when they rank fourth or fifth at best. This week, Papelbon signed the highest contract for an arbitration eligible reliever, earning him $6.25 million for 2009.  The irony is, Papelbon's numbers have been climbing a bit over his three year career.  The increase certainly hasn't been enough to make him ineffective; he's still a very good reliever.  But Papelbon may discover pretty soon that it's not easy to be an elite reliever over a long period of time and comparing himself to Mariano Rivera might be a little premature.