Overestimating Joba

It's reality check time, both for the Yankees and their fans. Joba will start for the Yankees against Toronto Tuesday night, marking his first appearance in the Yankees rotation and last out of the bullpen. At least, we hope. Temper your expectations. We'd all like to believe that Joba's 95+ fastball and devastating slider will translate instantly to the starting rotation, his above average curve and changeup completing an arsenal that will devour major league hitters. And that may, in fact, happen. At least, we hope. But the reality is, Joba is a 22 year old kid. The Yankees have thrown three kids into the rotation this year with less than stellar results. Philip Hughes is out until likely August with a fractured rib. Ian Kennedy followed with a strained right should after bouncing back and forth from triple AAA. Neither pitcher was setting the league on fire before their injury. Joba probably won't either, despite his bullpen experience, and we shouldn't expect him to. All three pitchers have tremendous potential, but to expect one, nevermind all three, to achieve longterm success is blind optimism, if not downright crazy. Case in point: Mulder/Hudson/Zito. Three pitchers were a young dominant force for Oakland that has since struggled to stay healthy or effective. This isn't to say that the three Yankee young will flame out. One, if not all if them, could very well be effective in the major leagues. You just can't expect great success from day one. If it were that easy, everyone would do it.