Let's Bury the "Joba Debate"

Justin Sablich over at the NYTimes Bats blog has decided that Joba Chamberlain should be in the bullpen. I don't like to grab big chunks of other writer's columns or blogs and pull them apart, but in this case I'm going to have to make an exception. So, let's get to it. Justin states simply:

Now with a revamped rotation for the 2009 season, a case can be made for keeping Chamberlain in the setup role. The Yankees simply do not need Chamberlain in the rotation the way they did last season. ... Should Pettitte return, is there any reason to believe (other than injuries) that the Yankees cannot survive with a rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett, Pettitte and Hughes?

"Other than injuries" is a nice disclaimer but a very real one. One only has to look at Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson to realize how quickly a rotation can fall apart. More importantly, though, is the makeup of the rotation he proposed. Sablich makes no reference to Joba possibly having health or arm issues this season, yet he pencils Phil Hughes into the rotation before Joba, simply because Joba has shown effectiveness out of the pen. What he neglects to mention is that Hughes has not shown ANY longterm effectiveness in the rotation. Joba has. It doesn't make sense to pencil in a pitcher with less success in the rotation over Joba. Looking at the rotation proposed, you can reasonably place Joba as the third best starter of that group, ahead of Pettitte and Burnett and, if last season is any indication, possibly better than Wang. Why would you take that arm out of the rotation? Any why doesn't Sablich acknowledge that both Joba and Hughes are on inning limits? Does he not know? Isn't that a major factor in filling that spot of the rotation? Sablich continues:

Chamberlain in the bullpen would most likely make each starting pitcher better by shortening his starts. Fans concerned about Sabathia burning out in September or Burnett breaking down over the long haul could rest a little easier. A Chamberlain bridge would also make life easier for Rivera, who turned 39 in November and may not be able to crank out a two-inning save with as much ease as in the past.

Whu? Ok. "Chamberlain in the bullpen would most likely make each starting pitcher better by shortening his starts." How many innings per game does Sablich think Joba would be throwing? Is the goal to only have the starting rotation throw 6 innings per start? That leads to bullpen burnout, that isn't a goal. If the Yankees are fortunate that Burnett and Sabathia are regularly making it to the 7th or even 8th innings, they should be thanking their lucky stars. Sure, in a blowout game you might want to rest your starter, but then why would you waste Joba? In a close game, if the starter is pitching effectively, why would you take him out? "A Chamberlain bridge would also make life easier for Rivera, who turned 39 in November and may not be able to crank out a two-inning save with as much ease as in the past." 15 of Rivera's 64 appearances last season were for more than one inning and 7 of those 15 were four outs. In those 15 outings, he averaged 21 pitches. In his outings of an inning or less, he averaged 13.5 pitches. Sablich is telling us that the most dominant closer of the modern era, coming off his most dominant season ever (0.665 WHIP) may not be able to handle the occasional extra 7 pitches. It might make more sense to see how Rivera responded to the workload and use that to determine how he might respond this season. Interestingly, in the four appearances that Rivera gave up a run after throwing more than an inning his previous outing, he was on at least three days rest. So no, Rivera does not need Joba to save his arm for him. Next:

In addition to keeping others healthy, Chamberlain could be healthier by remaining a reliever. There’s no questioning his effectiveness as a starter. His numbers as a starter last season (2.75 ERA and 10.3 K/9) were almost identical to his stats as a reliever (2.31 ERA and 11.1 K/9). But his shoulder injury came about as a starter, and fewer innings could only help him keep his shoulder strong.

His shoulder injury happened as a starter, but does Sablich or anyone else have any idea what

caused

the shoulder injury? Sablich is applying the argument that being a starting pitcher is more rigorous than being a reliever, but that's a poor assumption to make. Pitching itself is an unnatural motion. Most relievers, especially power relievers, get their edge by the ability to overthrow for a few innings. Amplifying the strain of an unnatural motion is not less rigorous than controlling said motion for a sustained period of time. If that isn't enough, take a moment and consider the shelf life of most relievers. Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are the exceptions to the rule. There is a reason why you rarely see middle relief guys stick with a single team over a long period of time. Most of them burn out. It is not a role that lends itself to a long and successful career and most guys who are dominant become closers. Should Joba be groomed as the Yankees next closer? If he had a 5.94 ERA as a starter like Rivera did, then sure. Rivera became a reliever

because he couldn't start.

He didn't have the pitching arsenal to get through a lineup two or three times. Joba has four pitches that are at least good with his fastball and slider being plus pitches. That is a rare find and the Yankees would be foolish not to at the very least give him a chance to fail in the rotation before consigning him to the bullpen. Sablich continues:

A popular argument for having Chamberlain start is that you should not waste a player with such ability as a reliever because the more innings he can pitch the better. Wouldn’t you rather have 230 innings of Chamberlain rather than 90? The problem with that argument is that you can say the same thing about Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon or a number of other great relievers. Are the Red Sox wasting Papelbon’s talent by limiting his innings and not converting him back to a starter?

"A number of other great relievers." I would like to see that list. Papelbon isn't an apt comparison. The Red Sox looked at Papelbon's pitches and decided he was better suited for the bullpen. Papelbon has a great fastball with great command, but his slider is average at best and his splitter works off his fastball. He doesn't have great command of his changeup and rarely throws it. With that repertoire, he wouldn't survive as a major league starter but he can thrive for one to two innings as a reliever. Joba doesn't have that problem. Sablich concludes:

If the Yankees used Chamberlain to shorten games to six innings, is that really a waste of talent? It sounds more like an incredible advantage to me.

I bet CC Sabathia would be great out of the pen. So would Wang, or even Burnett. If they can handle it for six innings, two should be a breeze. Around the third week of April in 2008, Joba's father was sick. The Yankees let Joba go tend to his father, fearing the worst. He didn't pitch for eight days. The Yankees went 4 - 4 in that span and, amazingly, didn't blow any late inning leads. If Joba were a starter in that span and maybe pitched in place of Phil Hughes (who gave up 11 ER in 7.1 innings), the Yankees may have gone 6 - 2. Relievers are only valuable when they have opportunity. What good would a star closer be if his team's rotation gave up six runs a game? If Joba were to sit in the pen and throw two innings every other day, over the course of ten games he would throw ten innings (for the sake of argument we are ignoring his innings limit). If Joba were an effective starter, he could give you 12 to 14 innings over that time span. Isn't that what you want? Why aren't people arguing for Phil Hughes in the bullpen? Hughes has been less than impressive during his time in the rotation, yet people are much more willing to grant him a starting slot despite his 5.15 ERA as a starter. Joba's ERA as a starter is 2.76, or roughly 2.40 runs

lower

than Hughes, yet since Joba looked good out of the pen, the Yankees should create more work for their offense and let the worse pitcher start. Joba has shown what he can do in the rotation. He needs the opportunity to build his innings count and succeed or fail as a starter before he is sent to the bullpen. Once he's a reliever and only throws 70 to 80 innings a year, he will never be able to handle a 220 inning season without tremendous risk. It's worth the gamble of a few seasons for the Yankees to see if they have an elite pitcher in their grasp. Otherwise, they'll have to go out and sign older pitchers to multi-year multi-million dollar contracts. And people will still complain.