Joba’s Innings Cast Doubt Over Hughes’ Role

Joba "news" from the Star-Ledger:

NEW YORK - Simple mathematics may alter Joba Chamberlain's role for the remainder of the regular season and perhaps the playoffs. General manager Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi admitted that the hard-throwing right-hander has an innings limit that could affect how the Yankees use him the rest of the way. The Yankees braintrust stopped short of saying they'd shut down Chamberlain when he reaches the mysterious number.

"There's plans in place," Cashman said. "Joe's aware of them and what he needs to do. So Joe and (pitching coach) Dave (Eiland) have been aware of them since spring training. We plan accordingly.... I wouldn't go through what the plan entails. But it's not a new plan. It's a plan that was hatched right at the beginning of the season." Girardi, who didn't divulge the magic number of innings allotted for Chamberlain this season, didn't say for certain that the right-hander would remain in the starting rotation for the remainder of the regular season or the playoffs. (Cashman said the plan was for Chamberlain to stay in the rotation for the rest of the regular season). "That's something that we're going to continue to talk about - see how he feels and how strong he is and what we see," Girardi said. "It's not etched in stone... We have options. There are things that we'll have to evaluate as we get closer to that point. We still have what we feel is a substantial amount of time. We'll just continue and see how he's doing. That's a concern."

This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.  It was widely assumed based on the conditions levied on the 2008 season that both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain entered 2009 with strict innings limits.  The question most of us were asking in the spring was, "what will the Yankees do when Joba comes close to his limit?" It was believed by juggling the rotation on off-days and Girardi using the early hook, Joba could make it through the season in the rotation.  At 95.2 innings with 68 games to go (and few off days), Joba could conceivably start 12 more games if not more, which at his average of 5.1 innings per start would give Joba 159 innings for the season. If you believe the Verducci Effect (and you should), Joba should only throw 130 innings this season after throwing 100 innings last year.  It's possible the Yankees decided to go a little above that limit, closer to 140 or even 150, reasoning that at some point, the pitcher has to pitch. Even at 150 innings, Joba is running dangerously close to maxing out before the season ends.  The Yankees could be left with the unenviable decision as to whether Joba should pitch out of the bullpen in the postseason or go home.  Worse, Joba could leave the Yankees without a starter in the final weeks of the season.  If Chien-Ming Wang is truly done for the season or is unable to pitch effectively, the Yankees could go through the stretch run with only three of their starters in the rotation. There were a few options in the organization coming out of spring training to fill the sixth and even seventh starter roles: Alfredo Aceves and Phil Hughes, both current members of the Yankees bullpen.  Both pitchers have been great in relief, with Hughes posting a 0.81 ERA, .761 WHIP and 5.6 K/BB ratio, Aceves a 2.09 ERA, .930 WHIP and 4.00 K/BB ratio.  Their emergence stabilized a rag-tag corp of relievers riding the AAA express while Brian Bruney battled his way in and out of injuries and ineffectiveness. But the Yankees have robbed Peter to pay Paul.  Their starter depth, once a strength, is now a weakness with Sergio Mitre taking over the fifth starter duties in Wang' absence, a role that should have been reserved for Hughes.  The decision was made that Hughes had nothing left to learn in AAA and, rather than demote him upon Wang's return, he was moved to the bullpen. He didn't go as a long relief man, though.  Instead, Girardi has been using Hughes as a one inning pitcher, occasionally for two, averaging 1.1 IP per appearance.  Since Hughes has already transitioned from starter to reliever and lessened his workload substantially, the Yankees have no intention of transitioning Hughes back into the rotation this season.*

* The irony, of course, is that Hughes has only thrown 57 innings this season and could be well on his way to throw

less

than his projected innings for the season.

The decision to use Hughes in such short relief is hard to fathom.  Wang returned to the rotation June 4th, throwing 4.2 innings and allowing five runs.  It was an improvement over previous starts but hardly a confidence boost for Wang or the Yankees.  Hughes didn't debut as a reliever until June 8th (four days after Wang's blown start) and pitched only one inning.  Two days later, Hughes pitched 3.2 innings... in relief of an ineffective Wang, who gave up three runs in 2.2 innings against the Red Sox.  Hughes hasn't thrown over two innings in an appearance since. It's difficult to imagine Brian Cashman or Joe Girardi drawing up their 2009 plans this way.  While they may have had Joba's season planned out from the beginning, the crumbling of Chien-Ming Wang threw a major wrench into Cashman's plans for both the rotation and for Phil Hughes. It would have made sense upon moving Hughes to the bullpen to utilize him in a long reliever role as much as possible.  Backing up Joba alone would have given Hughes a decent amount of innings every fifth day.  In that role, Hughes could have made the transition back to the rotation a bit easier than he can right now. The same could be said for Alfredo Aceves who, after starting four games in the minors at roughly 6 innings per start, has averaged just 1.2 innings per appearance since he joined the bullpen.  The move made more sense for Aceves as Hughes was currently in the Yankees rotation with little thought of removing him from the sixth starter role. Why, then,

was

Hughes removed from the sixth starter role?  Was the Yankees bullpen that desperate that they needed Hughes in short relief? Yankee starters have been averaging just over 5.2 innings per start, leaving the bullpen a little more than three innings of work per game.  That's right about league average. The Yankee bullpen, even with it's recent success, ranks 8th in the AL in bullpen ERA and 10th in runs allowed per game.  On the flip side, they lead the AL in WHIP and are second only to Boston in Inherited Scored percentage at 30%.  Essentially, they're good at putting out fires but also start a few themselves.  It's also worth noting that Hughes accounts for only 22.1 of the bullpen's 297.2 innings. The bullpen is definitely stronger with Hughes aboard but probably could have survived without him.  Wang's return to the rotation after being rushed back from rehab left the Yankees with two options: waste Hughes talent in the minors or get the most out of his work for the season and stick him in the bullpen. It was the right decision at the time.  It's the handling of Hughes in the bullpen that is going to burn the Yankees, possibly necessitating a deadline trade for a starter.  The Yankees have been resistant to carrying a long reliever the last two years, despite having young, old, and injury prone pitchers in their rotation.  It would have been a fitting role for Hughes these last few months and would give the Yankees a little more security come September. As it stands, the Yankees best option for their rotation is locked up in the bullpen with little chance of returning.

Update: 7/24/09 8:15 AM

Mark Feinsand is creating deja vu all over again:

I’ve already gone on record saying that I believe Phil Hughes should be the Yankees’ next closer. What I saw tonight did nothing but confirm that belief. Hughes picked up his first big-league save with a pair of scoreless innings, looking as dominant as he has for the past six weeks since he moved to the bullpen. The 23-year-old now has a 22-inning scoreless streak, the longest by a Yankees reliever since Mariano Rivera went 23 straight in 2005. But it wasn’t what Hughes did on the mound that reaffirmed my belief that his future should be as Rivera’s successor. It was his comments after the game that made me positive that this is the perfect guy to fill what will certainly be the biggest empty shoes in baseball history.

Asked if it felt different to get the final three outs - something virtually every pitcher that has ever closed a game for the first time has said - Hughes said it was “no different” than the other innings he’s pitched. “Just one more inning than I’ve been used to,” Hughes said. “I had a little cushion to work with, which was nice. I was just thinking about the next pitch and trying to execute it. It didn’t really sink in until Robbie threw me the ball.” It almost felt as though Hughes couldn’t understand why people were making such a big deal about the save. He had a three-run lead after all, so what was the big deal?

Ugh.  I don't know if I have the stomach for another one of these arguments...