Jeter May Not Be the Best Shortstop in AL, Never Mind MVP

Beating... my head... against... wall...:

If Albert Pujols is a slam-dunk to win the National League Most Valuable Player Award, Derek Jeter is not too far behind to take the American League MVP Award.

Ok, stop. Usually, I will let these things run for the total I think is relevant.  However, that sometimes leads to re-quoting lines to make my argument.  In the case of this article, I'd basically print it twice which might make my brain hurt.  For the sake of efficiency and my own sanity, I will break it down line by line. Stating that Jeter is right behind Albert Pujols as far as "slam dunks" to win the MVP is just silly.  Stating something doesn't make it true.

"The sky is green."

Do you even have to look outside for that one?  I hope not.

Albert Pujols has a 1.137 OPS so far this season.  He leads the National League in games played, runs, home runs, OBP, SLG (and therefore OPS and OPS+), and total bases.  The next closest candidate at first base is Prince Fielder, who has played the same amount of games and has 1 more RBI than Pujols.  Pujols' OPS is 137 points higher than Fielder and he's been average to well above average defensively.

As great as Pujols has been, he's not exactly a slam dunk.  Hanley Ramirez has been putting up another great year at shortstop for the Marlins.  If you're going to consider Jeter's numbers at short in the AL (which are well below Hanley's numbers), you have to at least look at Ramirez in the NL.

Regarding Jeter: he's having a wonderful year.  There is no arguing it.  That said, percentage-wise, Jason Bartlett of the Tampa Bay Rays has had a better year.  He has also done it in 151 less plate appearances, which probably  gives Jeter the edge as far as shortstops go.

The argument for the AL MVP still has to include Mauer, but this is where it gets interesting.  Mauer leads the AL in batting average, OBP, and SLG.  He's doing it while playing great defense at the catcher's position.

But, similar to Jason Bartlett, Mauer has 133 less plate appearances than Jeter, 18 more than Barlett.  That's not a heck of a lot of difference.

Not many people are eliminating Mauer from the MVP talk because he missed the first 22 games of the season.  In most people's eyes, his numbers have more than made up the difference created by time lost.

By that logic, it's almost impossible to put Jeter ahead of Jason Bartlett.  Bartlett has outperformed Jeter in almost every offensive category except plate appearances:

RK	PLAYER	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO
1	Derek Jeter	581	101	192	27	1	17	63	26	5	61	80
2	Jason Bartlett	445	77	146	27	6	14	63	24	6	45	89
RK	PLAYER	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Derek Jeter	.330	.397	.468	.865
2	Jason Bartlett	.328	.391	.510	.901
RK	PLAYER	GP	BA	TPA	PIT	P/PA	TB	XBH	HBP	IBB	GDP	SH	SF
1	Derek Jeter	138	.330	651	2474	3.8	272	45	4	4	16	4	1
2	Jason Bartlett	121	.328	500	1949	3.9	227	47	3	2	3	4	3
RK	PLAYER	BA	RC	RC27	ISOP	SECA	GB	FB	G/F	AB/HR	BB/PA	BB/K
1	Derek Jeter	.330	107.4	6.99	.138	.279	287	219	1.31	34.2	.094	.760
2	Jason Bartlett	.328	90.4	7.75	.182	.324	128	235	0.54	31.8	.090	.510

Bartlett over three years has been just above average defensively using UZR.  Jeter is having his first above average year defensively, but has been below average looking at his last three years.*

* UZR and UZR/150 are defensive metrics found at fangraphs.com.  They are best judged over larger sample sizes, the recomend being three years.

It's certainly possible that if Bartlett played the entire season, his percentages would go down a bit.  But simply put, if Mauer is part of your MVP conversation, you simply can not pick Jeter as the MVP when he hasn't even been the best shortstop.

Back to Hal Bodley's article:

When Jeter passed Lou Gehrig's record that had stood for more than 70 years over the weekend for most hits by a Yankees player, he sealed the deal.

What influence should Lou Gehrig have over the MVP race of 2009?  Are any of the parameters for

any

aware, not just the MVP award, based on a player who hasn't gotten a hit since 1939? Jeter's new record was a team record that moved him into 53rd on the all time MLB hit list, a feat that Joe Mauer and Jason Barlett had no chance of achieving.

Sure, you can argue the honor should go to the Minnesota Twins' Joe Mauer, or even Jeter's teammate, Mark Teixeira, but if the Yankees captain isn't MVP, the voting baseball writers should be investigated.

The two halves of the sentence have little business living together.  If there is an argument to be made for the other two candidates listed, then it probably isn't so cut and dry.  I guess we're in the business of blanket statements and not stating facts.  Presenting statistical facts would screw with our headline.

When Jeter collected his 2,722nd hit at Yankee Stadium late Friday night, it was another of those cherished moments in baseball history -- like the night in 1985, when Pete Rose passed Ty Cobb's all-time hits record, or 1995, when Gehrig's consecutive games record was shattered by Cal Ripken Jr.

Says who?  ESPN?  The YES Network? A dozen New York beat writers who have nothing else to get wordy about because the AL East is a done deal?  If this happened in San Francisco, where the Giants current career leader in hits is Willie Mays at 3187, would it have met nearly as much fanfare?  Doubtful. Let's not make people hate the Yankees anymore than they already do by over blowing a team record that has little impact outside anyone in the Yankee universe.  I highly doubt

anyone

watched those hat-tipping Jeter highlights west of New Jersey and felt anything close to watching Cal lap the field, thanking the fans after breaking Gehrig's more prestigious record.

The legendary Gehrig, also a Yankees captain, was beloved and respected and for someone with the same admirable qualities to now hold this record is fitting.

Ok.  Inconsequential, but ok.

The MVP Award should go to the player whose leadership and value has contributed to his team's success more than any other individual. Jeter has been that player for the Yankees as they storm to another AL East title.

Where would the Twins be without Mauer?  Where would the Rays be without Bartlett or Ben Zobrist?  Where would the Tigers be without Miguel Cabrera? And how to we quantify leadership, exactly?  Do we know that Jeter is more of a leader than Mauer?  Mauer touches the ball more times per game than anyone besides the pitcher.  He must have

some

leadership qualities if he plays that important a role on defense.

There may be teammates who have higher batting averages, hit more homers, driven in more runs, but no one has been more valuable to the Yankees this season.

So, in the business of scoring runs, we acknowledge that some people have done it better.  But because of leadership, Jeter wins. Where's the line, then?  How do we balance leadership against what a player has achieved on the field?  If a player is a great leader but below league average offensively, is he still a valuable player?  What if he is really good offensively but only has some leadership skills? It's a slippery slope to start injecting such ridiculous qualities as leadership into an argument about value.  You have no way of measuring leadership and even less way of understanding what effect it has on the other players. And some players lead by example, such as hitting the snot out of the ball.

The Yankees are the most successful, renowned team in Major League history. When you think of them, the names of Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle come to mind. Years from now, Jeter's name will be uttered in the same breath.

What does that have to do with the MVP argument for 2009?

All those iconic Yankees made their marks, but none collected more base hits in their careers than Jeter. Ruth had 2,518 hits, Mantle had 2,415 and DiMaggio, 2,214. It's amazing none reached the 3,000-hit standard.

That's great.  Were you aware that Gehrig still leads Jeter in total bases by 1,100?  In less plate appearances? Oh, and what does that have to do with the MVP argument for 2009? It's been said elsewhere and I'll say it here: the lifetime achievement award is given out in Cooperstown.  The MVP award goes to the best player of 2009, not 1996 - 2009, not for righting past wrongs, not for breaking miscellaneous  team records. If, at the end of the season, Jeter's numbers are truly the best in the AL based on offense, defense, and his position, then he deserves the award.  Right now, that isn't the case.

UPDATE:

In thinking over what I wrote, I realized there was one point I thought about but probably didn't make. The plate appearances that Jeter has over Bartlett (now 152)   are important because those appearances have value.  In the case of Jeter, who is a leadoff hitter, those 152 plate appearances mean another 32 games or so.  For Bartlett, who has hit in every position in the order except third and fourth, it means closer to 39 or 40 games. That's a significant amount of games, nearly a quarter of a season.  Playing time is essential when talking about these things because your high percentages don't mean anything if you're not in the game. Bartlett has mostly outperformed Jeter in the numbers categories, but Jeter gains an edge because he's simply played more games. The juxtaposition I find interesting is the effect Bartlett has on Jeter in light of all the support Mauer is receiving.  If you accept Mauer as a candidate, regardless of his time missed (Mauer has played 120 games to Bartlett's 122), you have to at least enter Bartlett into the conversation.  Once you do that, Jeter isn't even close to a slam dunk and is brought down a notch or two. The final question, then, is how does that loss of playing time effect Mauer's status?  Tom K in the Google Group made an interesting point a few weeks ago: If Mauer has missed the last month of the season rather than the first, people would be looking at his candidacy in an entirely different light.  MVP awards have been won and lost in the last month.  A player who doesn't finish the season during pennant races is usually penalized in the voting. Last I checked, every game is 1 of 162.  Mauer's absence in April probably would have had as much impact in September.  The difference is in perception. Mauer's numbers may be enough to overcome that deficit.  We'll know soon enough.