Is Matsui Making a Case for 2010 Over Damon?

Let's play Player A and Player B, shall we? Player A:

Split	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
vs RHP	114	340		82	16	1	13	40	44	43	.281	.379	.476	.855	139	.291
vs LHP	69	138		34	5	0	12	45	13	21	.276	.348	.610	.958	75	.242
Split	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
Home	70	270	28	63	11	0	13	47	30	40	.268	.356	.481	.836	113	.272
Away	59	208	28	53	10	1	12	38	27	24	.294	.389	.561	.951	101	.285
	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
Totals	129	478	56	116	21	1	25	85	57	64	.280	.370	.516	.886	214	.277

And Player B:

Split	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
vs RHP	123	401		99	22	3	17	52	49	54	.284	.375	.511	.886	178	.295
vs LHP	80	178		45	9	0	7	24	16	38	.278	.343	.463	.806	75	.325
Split	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
Home	69	300	55	75	18	0	17	40	38	42	.290	.385	.556	.941	144	.290
Away	63	279	47	69	13	3	7	36	27	50	.275	.344	.434	.778	109	.318
	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip
Totals	132	579	102	144	31	3	24	76	65	92	.282	.365	.496	.861	253	.304

A few general observations about these two left-handers and then we'll get into the specifics:

• Player A has had the better season, despite what appears to be a pretty unlucky Batting Average on Balls in Play (BAbip is typically in the .300 - .320 range).

• Both players have good home run totals, although Player B has been a bit dependent on the new Yankee Stadium for his tally.  Player A's totals at home are worse than his road numbers, which could be attributed again to his low BAbip.

• In spite of a ridiculously low .242 BAbip, Player A's numbers against lefties (especially being a lefty himself) are great, while Player B's are pretty good.

Player A

is 35 year old Hideki Matsui. 

Player B

is 35 year old Johnny Damon. The general consensus around the Yankees is that this will be Matsui's last year in pinstripes.  Hideki has been battling bad knees for the last few season that occasionally have to be drained or given cortisone shots just to get him through the week. You wouldn't know it looking at his stats, though. Matsui has had a year above and beyond what anyone expected from him and probably will post his third best offensive season out of his seven year tenure as a Yankee. The problem is, Matsui's knees keep him from playing the outfield, where he wasn't particularly effective anyway.  Having little flexibility with Matsui position-wise makes him the prototypical DH of ten years ago, which is a role most teams have shied away from. On the flip side is Damon, who has put together another very good season for the Yanks.  Damon has remained a strong force at the top of the Yankees lineup and is poised to post a better season than 2008.  Speculation has been that the Yankees would try and bring Damon back next year with possibly a two year contract, assuming he would take it.  Damon has publicly stated that he doesn't want to play anywhere else, a stance he took in Boston until the Yankees flashed more green his way. But Damon comes with his own defensive questions.  His defensive numbers place him in a three year decline, the reverse order of his offensive resurgence over that same span.  It is becoming clearer watching him in left field that he won't be playing there much longer.  If Damon does return to the Yankees, chances are he would be spending a decent amount of time at DH as well while getting some starts in the outfield. The question is, which of these two players makes more sense for the Yankees over the next two seasons?  Damon is a good piece at the top of the lineup alongside Jeter and still has some speed.  As his defensive numbers go down, it make you wonder if it is an indication his speed is declining as well.  He's had 27 fewer stolen base attempts this season than last, but he's also been batting second behind Jeter, who has

more

attempts, so it could just be factor of the batting order. It is typically thought that a player with speed and a good on-base percentage like Damon will age better than a slower power hitter like Matsui.  But Hideki's numbers are hard to argue. He's not going to leg out many base hits and as a DH he'll get pulled late in games for a pinch runner when needed.  Also, his splits against lefties this year are a bit extreme.  He typically has been above average against lefties over his career so this year's numbers aren't that far-fetched; you just can't expect to see them again next year. Where Matsui shines is his home/road splits.  Matsui has actually hit a bit worse at home this season, which again seems like a bit of bad luck because of a low BAbip.  Over his career, Matsui's splits are almost dead even between home and road, despite playing in  park that is friendly to lefty power hitters.  Damon has benefited greatly from the new Yankee Stadium. If his home numbers were to even out next year and his overall numbers regress a notch, Damon's overall performance would drop considerably. It's an interesting question the Yankees will face.  Lost in all the on-field analysis is the financial benefits Matsui brings to the team through his marketing to the Japanese population.  That will surely play a factor in the Yankees decision making. There isn't room for both players, unless the Yankees are set on leaving Damon in left field for another year and can go year to year with Matsui.  A lot of it will depend on where Damon and Matsui see themselves in their respective careers.  Maybe Matsui will only want another year and then return to Japan for a season or two at home.  Maybe Damon only sees himself playing for two more years and then he's finished.  Who knows? The answer for the Yankees may lie in what contracts they would be willing to give each player.  It's fair to assume that Matsui could be an effective hitter in 2010, assuming that the medical reports on his knees support his ability to play.  It probably wouldn't be wise to guarantee him any money beyond that.  Damon could probably have two effective years left given that he is the better athlete and in better health, although the Yankees do need to give his balky legs a rest from time to time. If both players were willing to accept those terms, it probably makes sense for the Yankees to bring them both back.  If they're forced to choose one, Johnny Damon still has to be your choice.