Debating Manny to the Yankees

Speculation about Manny Ramirez possibly signing with the Yankees continues.  Today, Mark Feinsand adds this bit of news, in print no less:

One baseball official told the Daily News that the Yankees' interest in Ramirez is more than cursory, that they see the slugger as the perfect complement in their lineup to Alex Rodriguez, forming a 1-2 punch like he did in Boston with David Ortiz. The official believes that the Yankees are "going hard" after Ramirez, to the point where they are willing to give him a three-year deal worth from $22 million to $25 million per year. Two other officials are skeptical that the Bombers would commit three years to the enigmatic Ramirez, who has already seen the Dodgers make and withdraw a two-year, $45 million offer this winter. Both of them believe the Yankees will linger in the background while agent Scott Boras works to gather offers, and if the market is limited, the Yanks will try to jump in with a two-year, $50 million package.

There's a lot of headline here burying a lot of "ifs," but it's intriguing nonetheless.  The article goes on to say that Cashman wants nothing to do with Manny, which isn't surprising. There's no denying the impact Manny could have on a lineup.  Since his debut in 1993 (covering 16 seasons), Manny is third in home runs (behind Thome and ARod), second in OPS (45 points behind Pujols but carried over 3624 more plate appearances), and first in Runs Created Above Average, 82 ahead of Thome and 86 ahead of ARod. To give that a little deeper context, consider this: over the last fifty years, Manny places ninth in Runs Created Above Average, behind Bonds, Mantle, Aaron, Mays, Musial, Frank Thomas, Frank Robinson, and Ted Williams.  In OPS, he ranks fourth, behind Ted Williams, Bonds, and Albert Pujols. Manny will go down in history as one of the greatest hitters ever and in 2008, his 164 OPS+ was 9 points above his career average.  He is showing no signs of slowing down. Unfortunately with Manny, you're also getting a terrible outfielder.  Since his start in 1993, Manny ranks fifth worst in Range Factor for outfielders behind Pat Burrel, Al Martin, Moises Alou, and Cliff Floyd.  Despite Fenway's miniscule left field, Manny's +/- ratings were -31 and -24 in 2006 and 2007.  His offense will offset his defense, but it's not ideal. It's obvious what can be expected from Manny if he plays at peak performance.  He has shown no signs of slowing down unless he does so intentionally.  A two year contract would probably be a safe bet, three years maybe a little more risk but somewhat reasonable. The debate really lies in whether Manny can be trusted.  Operation Shutdown coming out of Boston this past summer has left a lot of people wondering whether Manny would really give his all on such a short contract.  He certainly can't be given any option years or an opt out because he and Boras have shown they will exploit every angle possible when more money is looming. And yet, when you look at Manny's monthly splits from last summer, he posted a .930 OPS in June, a 1.060 OPS in July, then was traded on July 31st.  His at-bats were lower, he did sit out some games, and it seems obvious that he intentionally did not try against a key at-bat against Mariano Rivera in that time span.  But as far as Manny tanking it on the field, he really didn't play that badly. We can't get inside Manny's head.  I don't think that's anywhere you want to go.  It's impossible to know how Manny would react given a short term deal.  He would have no leverage in his contract to wield any power against his employer as he did against the Red Sox.  It can be argued that the whole Operation Shutdown was done completely at the behest of Scott Boras.  David Ortiz has been quoted as saying Manny would leave uncashed checked in his glove compartment, seemingly oblivious to exactly how much money was sitting there unused.  That doesn't sound like a guy wringing his hands over every last dollar. Manny has always been an aloof,  free spirit circus act.  It wouldn't surprise me if, upon hiring Scott Boras, Boras decided that he didn't want to wait for Manny's decline to get him a new contract because Manny's value would depreciate and therefore Boras' take would be less.  Manny did what Boras told him and here we are. Take away those opportunities for Manny, give him his money for two or three years and let him mash as a part time left fielder/part time designated hitter and he might be fine.  It's a risk, to be sure, and many will tell you that rewarding his behavior this past season sends the wrong message to him and to his wrangler Scott Boras.  There's a lot of truth to that. There's also a lot of truth to a guy with a career 1.004 OPS who shows zero fear in the clutch.  I would have a hard time rooting for him in pinstripes, but I'll take his offense any day.