Abreu as Confusing As Ever

Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports on Bobby Abreu this season:

After talking with the A's and White Sox, Abreu ended up accepting $5 million from the Angels just days before camp opened. It was an $11 million paycut.Of course, Abreu has proven to be a bargain, even if he didn't hit his first homer until May 26. He's currently batting .322/.417/.455 with 22 steals in 27 attempts. He ranks sixth in the AL in average, third in OBP, tied for fifth in steals and 11th in runs created. He was just named the AL's player of the month for July, mainly because he led the circuit with 28 RBI. His defense, much maligned during his final season in New York,

has graded out as practically average this year

. Abreu is on pace to play in 150 games and post an 800 OPS for the 12th straight seasons. With one more homer, he'll join Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan and Willie Mays as the only players with 250 homers, 2,000 hits, 1,000 runs, 1,000 RBI, 1,000 walks and 300 stolen bases.

snip

Worse players have been enshrined in Cooperstown. It's going to be very interesting to see how he's treated when he's a free agent again this winter. Abreu will turn 36 next spring, and he's not known for his conditioning. Still, the remarkable durability should make him a candidate for one more multiyear deal, likely at significantly more than the $5 million he's earning this season.

That last bit there might be a little

too

speculative.  There has been some guessing in the media that some teams may be cutting their payroll even more for the 2010 because the economy is taking it's sweet time to rebound.  If teams are even tighter this winter, it won't help Bobby's chances of a multiyear deal. Does he deserve one at the age of 36?  There aren't many 36 year old outfielders that would, especially when looking at Abreu's defense over his career. It's nice that Abreu's UZR for the season thus far is repectably just below average, almost 25 points higher than it was last season.  Looking at Dewan's Plus/Minus at Bill James Online, Abreu has been below average on everything except deep balls, where he is plus five.  That could be as much about positioning as anything else.  If you've ever watched Abreu play the outfield, you know that he and walls do not get along. Still, last year was an extremely bad defensive year for Abreu.  Even though his career has not been great in the field, 2008 does stand out as an odd extreme, so extreme in fact that despite somewhat comparable offensive numbers to this season, FanGraph's rated Abreu's 2008 value $10 million less than his $16 million salary. That value placed him at $5.6 million, a hair north of Abreu's 2009 salary and the very reason why Brian Cashman didn't offer Abreu arbitration last winter.  Had Abreu accepted, the Yankees probably would be paying Abreu at least $16 million, and if positioning truly is a factor in Bobby's defensive resurgence, he may have reverted to his 2008 value in a second year under Joe Girardi. It's difficult to claim that "Abrea Making 29 Teams Look Foolish" as Pouliot titles his article.  Abreu himself looked pretty foolish last year in the outfield and he greatly benefitted from the short porch in the old new Yankee Stadium which inflated his numbers a bit.  Few Yankee fans shed a tear when Bobby wasn't offered arbitration and, if he was the dynamo player in 2008 that Pouliot portrays him to be now, he would have gotten his multiyear deal last winter. Abreu could certainly buck the typical trend and put up these numbers in 2010 and 2011.  The question is, who wants to take the gamble on his defense and pay for it? As far as the Hall of Fame goes, there's only two players in Abreu's similarity scores on Baseball Reference in the Hall of Fame.  One is George Brett, who played until he was 40 and had an OPS+ over 100 in all but two of his full major league seasons (he played 20).  And, Brett was a third baseman.  There are only 13 third basemen in the Hall of Fame.  There are 55 outfielders in the Hall, almost all of whom have better numbers than Abreu. Abreu has been a solid player for a long time, but he's never finished above 16th in the MVP voting.  I have a hard time believing that Abreu has a legit shot at the Hall.