A Tale of Two Jobas

Another rough start for Joba in Seattle Sunday afternoon, his third in a row.  We're a long way from all the praise Chamberlain received during his three stellar starts after the All-Star break. A breakdown of Joba's three starts after the ASB and his three starts since: 3 starts after ASB G    GS      H      R       ER       BB       SO      HR       HBP 3       3       8       2        2          8        19        1            2 3 starts since G    GS      H      R      ER       BB       SO      HR      HBP 3       3      18     12       12       12        12         3           0 Three starts is nothing to get worked up about, but then, it probably shouldn't have been so overblown after the break, either. The lingering question will revolve around which Joba is for real. If mechanics were the explanation for why he threw so well coming out of the break, mechanics are probably the reason he hasn't thrown well since.  The ability to repeat your mechanics pitch after pitch are one of the keys to being a successful pitcher, especially a starting pitcher. Out of the pen, Joba could use his fastball to blow guys away and make them chase with the slider.  He still needed decent control, but focusing on two pitches made his repertoire easier to maintain.  As a starter, he's slowing down his fastball a bit and using a curve and occasional changeup, which adds more variables to his mechanics. Joba's also heading into uncharted waters with his innings count, having reached 126.2 innings on Sunday.  They'll probably let him go to about 150 innings or so, maybe further.  If he starts to show some fatigue, they may decide that they have to shut him down to protect his arm. Of course, with people like Tom Seaver chiming in on Joba, a move like that isn't always easy.  Said Seaver:

“Tell me, how does a pitcher get to the next level unless he’s tested under fire?” Seaver asked. “Where are you going to find the next Bob Gibson or Nolan Ryan or Steve Carlton unless a young pitcher is pushed? You won’t.” “

probably have a lot of money invested in Chamberlain, it’s a financial thing and they want to protect him. But he won’t reach his baseball limit this way.”

Seaver was a hell of a pitcher, one of the best ever, but he was a crappy commentator.  Rarely did I agree with anything Seaver said and this time is no different. Right off the bat, Seaver pushes two different concepts: high pressure situations and pushing a pitcher.  The Yankees have made no reference (yet...) to Joba not pitching in the postseason, so insinuating that they don't want to put him "under fire" is flat out incorrect.  "Pushing" Joba, or any pitcher for that matter, implies in the word itself that you are forcing someone past the point of reason.  By Seaver's logic, you won't know if a pitcher is tough unless you abuse him.  Does that makes sense with a pitcher like Joba who has never thrown 150 innings in his life? But the argument I hear all the time, Seaver manages to repeat.  “

probably have a lot of money invested in Chamberlain, it’s a financial thing and they want to protect him."  There's a different variable attached to this that most people don't acknowledge. The concern isn't just about the money invested in Joba, but also the money

saved

with Joba.  Chamberlain's making $433k this season and has an ERA+ of 116, making him better than league average.  He will be under the Yankees control for at least the next four years at a reasonable rate with one year deals unless they work out a long-term contract. Young, inexpensive pitching is about the hottest commodity you can have right now in baseball.  If you don't think that's the case, take a look at some of the larger contracts signed by starting pitchers over the last ten years and tell me which one's worked out. The only one that comes immediately to mind is Mike Mussina.  You certainly can't look at the Chan Ho Park and Barry Zito type contracts and call them a success. In most cases, by the time a pitcher reaches the free agent market, they've either reached their peak or are able to sign a contract that overpays for decline years at the end. The value of Joba, then, isn't just what the Yankees have spent on him already.  The great value in Joba lies in his effectiveness at a young and inexpensive age.  If Joba shows over the coming month that his inning total is starting to wear him down, they may not have a choice but to protect their asset and shut him down.