Yanks in Little Danger of Losing AL East

As the Yankees head out to the west coast to begin the final leg of the regular season, the Chicken Littles of the press are using this slow news day to extol the worst case scenarios ahead. Don't listen to them.  While there is a remote, remote possibility that the Yankees could somehow collapse and lose the AL East to the Red Sox, it is pretty far from likely. Consider the Yankees possible outcomes:

Yankees	Current Record
	94-53
Possible Outcomes	Possible Records
For Last 15 Games
Wins	Loses	Wins	Loses
0	15		94	68
1	14		95	67
2	13		96	66
3	12		97	65
4	11		98	64
5	10		99	63
6	9		100	62
7	8		101	61
8	7		102	60
9	6		103	59
10	5		104	58
11	4		105	57
12	3		106	56
13	2		107	55
14	1		108	54
15	0		109	53

Now the Red Sox possible outcomes:

Red Sox	Current Record
86-59
Possible Outcomes	Possible Record
For Last 17 Games
Wins	Loses	Wins	Loses
0	17		86	76
1	16		87	75
2	15		88	74
3	14		89	73
4	13		90	72
5	12		91	71
6	11		92	70
7	10		93	69
8	9		94	68
9	8		95	67
10	7		96	66
11	6		97	65
12	5		98	64
13	4		99	63
14	3		100	62
15	2		101	61
16	1		102	60
17	0		103	59

Eight of the Red Sox seventeen total possible outcomes are already eliminated because the Yankees have 94 wins already, leaving nine possible outcomes. That leaves us with this scenario:

Yankees	Red Sox
Outcomes	Records	Outcomes	Records
Wins	Loses	Wins	Loses	Wins	Loses	Wins	Loses
0	15	94	68		8	9	94	68
1	14	95	67		9	8	95	67
2	13	96	66		10	7	96	66
3	12	97	65		11	6	97	65
4	11	98	64		12	5	98	64
5	10	99	63		13	4	99	63
6	9	100	62		14	3	100	62
7	8	101	61		15	2	101	61
8	7	102	60		16	1	102	60
9	6	103	59		17	0	103	59
10	5	104	58
11	4	105	57
12	3	106	56
13	2	107	55
14	1	108	54
15	0	109	53

Six of the Yankees fifteen scenarios (although unlikely) would eliminate the Red Sox regardless of what Boston does. Similarly, Boston would need to go on a 14-3 type tear while the Yankees simultaneously went 6-9. Looking at the schedule, it's not completely inconceivable that the Red Sox could go on a run.  In their final few weeks of the season, the Sox face Baltimore, Kansas City, the Yankees, Toronto, and Cleveland.  Remove the Yankees from that equation and those teams have a .421 winning percentage.  Boston has gone a combined 39-15 against those teams (including the Yankees) for a .722 winning percentage.  That's a pretty high percentage, even against those teams.  Apply a .722 winning percentage to their last 17 games and you get a record of 12 - 5. Looking at the Yankees schedule, they face Seattle, the Angels, Boston, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay.  Remove the Red Sox from that list and the teams have a .505 winning percentage.  The Yankees have gone a combined 26 - 21 against those teams (including the Red Sox) for a .553 winning percentage.  Apply that percentage to the Yankees last 15 games and you get a record of 8-7. If the Yankees go 8-7, the Red Sox will need to go 16-1 just to tie the division.  If the Red Sox go 12-5, the Yankees would have to go 4-11 for the Red Sox to tie. Of course, past performance doesn't guarantee future results.  The Yankees themselves went 0-8 against the Red Sox before winning six of the last seven. Looking at all the possible outcomes, though, it would take some extraordinary play from the Red Sox and some extraordinarily

bad

play from the Yankees to give Boston the AL East.

Yankees
	Current Record
	Wins	Loses		Wins	Loses
	94	53	Possible Record
Possible Outcomes	0	15		94	68
For Last 15 Games	1	14		95	67
	2	13		96	66
	3	12		97	65
	4	11		98	64
	5	10		99	63
	6	9		100	62
	7	8		101	61
	8	7		102	60
	9	6		103	59
	10	5		104	58
	11	4		105	57
	12	3		106	56
	13	2		107	55
	14	1		108	54
	15	0		109	53