Looking at ALDS Game 2: Blackburn Vs. Burnett

It was a good start for the Yankees Wednesday night, riding 6.2 innings from CC Sabathia on their way to a 7-2 victory over the Twins. It sounds cliche and unnecessary, but every game truly does count in a short series, especially a best of five.  If we learned anything from the Twins Tuesday night victory over the Tigers, it's that the Homerdome can still be a rockin' place to play.  With the baggy walls ready to gasp their last breath, you can be sure that winning in Minnesota will be a tough task. All the more reason to focus on game 2, when the Twins will throw Nick Blackburn against AJ Burnett for the Yankees. Blackburn has been a solid pitcher for the Twins.  Amazingly, he's posted back to back 11-11 seasons with an ERA just over 4.00 both years.  You can't put too much on wins as a statistic for a pitcher since so much of it is dependent on run support, but pitching in the typically weal AL Central would hopefully yield slightly better results for the 27 year old right-hander. Blackburn doesn't have a tremendous history against Yankee hitters.  Here's how they've fared against him so far:

Blackburn versus Yanks
		PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick	Swisher	15	12	3	1	0	0	2	3	1	.250	.400	.333	.733
Johnny	Damon	12	11	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	.273	.333	.636	.969
Derek	Jeter	12	7	3	0	0	1	3	4	2	.429	.636	.857	1.493
Alex	Rodriguez	9	9	3	0	0	1	3	0	4	.333	.333	.667	1.000
Robinson	Cano	8	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mark	Teixeira	7	6	6	1	0	1	5	1	0	1.000	1.000	1.667	2.667
Melky	Cabrera	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.167	.167	.167	.334
Eric	Hinske	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	.250	.400	.500	.900
Brett	Gardner	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Hideki	Matsui	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000
Jose	Molina	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.500	.667	.500	1.167
Francisco	Cervell	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
	Total	86	74	23	5	0	4	14	11	8	.311	.400	.541	.941

A couple of things of note here:

• Eight strikeouts over eighty-six plate appearances is not very good.  One of the better indicators of a pitchers effectiveness is their strikeout to walk ratio and home runs allowed.  Blackburn has actually walked more Yankee hitters than he's struck out, which isn't an encouraging sign for the Twins.

• Four home runs in eighty-six plate appearances should be encouraging, though.  Naturally, Blackburn has had the most trouble with the top of the order.  The younger guys like Melky and Cano have barely seen him but have not fared well in their few at-bats.

Another thing to look at or Blackburn are his career splits over a season:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
April/March	11	294	275	30	83	17	0	2	13	31	2.38	.302	.337	.385	.722	.333
May	11	304	280	36	77	12	3	8	18	40	2.22	.275	.325	.425	.750	.296
June	10	266	253	29	71	18	1	10	11	28	2.55	.281	.316	.478	.794	.284
July	10	263	252	35	72	13	1	7	7	27	3.86	.286	.300	.429	.729	.293
August	12	294	269	41	84	13	1	8	19	29	1.53	.312	.358	.457	.816	.323
Sept/Oct	18	338	319	46	96	12	2	15	14	47	3.36	.301	.332	.492	.824	.315

It doesn't appear that Blackburn gets any stronger toward the end of the season.  Interestingly, his second best SO/BB ratio of the year comes when his opponents are hitting best off of him, mostly due to his high home run totals in September and October.  His other numbers are basically on par with the rest of his year. For our last trick, let's take a quick look at how the Yankees break down against right-handers and left-handers:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP as RH	161	1259	1104	168	311	50	3	36	158	125	192	.282	.361	.430	.792
vs RHP as LH	161	3228	2842	453	802	179	14	132	440	331	490	.282	.360	.494	.854
vs RHP	322	4487	3946	621	1113	229	17	168	598	456	682	.282	.360	.476	.837
vs LHP	255	1960	1714	294	491	96	4	76	283	207	332	.286	.365	.480	.846

I've left the Yankees performance against left-handers in their for a little bit of context. Pretty darn good numbers for the Yanks.  The additions of Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira, both switch hitters, and Hideki Matsui's dominance over left-handers this season has actually made the Yankees

better

against lefties than righties, albeit a marginal difference.  Still, making up that gap from 2008 (.734 OPS against lefties, .784 OPS against righties) has certainly helped. What's good for the Yankees here is their SO/BB ratio against right-handers, which is about 1.50.  Blackburn's career ratio is 2.46 and against the Yankees is actually less than 1.00.  One can bet the Yankees will try and work the count as usual against Blackburn because they don't seem to afraid of his stuff. Let's look at what AJ Burnett has done against the Twins:

		PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Orlando	Cabrera	30	28	7	0	0	1	4	2	4	.250	.300	.357	.657
Jason	Kubel	17	17	5	1	0	0	0	0	4	.294	.294	.353	.647
Michael	Cuddyer	15	13	2	1	0	0	1	2	6	.154	.267	.231	.498
Joe	Mauer	15	13	5	1	0	0	1	2	3	.385	.467	.462	.929
Nick	Punto	14	11	1	0	0	0	0	3	2	.091	.286	.091	.377
Brendan	Harris	13	12	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	.167	.231	.417	.648
Denard	Span	12	11	3	0	0	0	0	1	7	.273	.333	.273	.606
Delmon	Young	10	10	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	.300	.300	.400	.700
Carlos	Gomez	8	7	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.143	.250	.143	.393
Matt	Tolbert	7	5	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	.400	.571	.800	1.371
Alexi	Casilla	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.250	.000	.250
	Total	145	130	31	4	1	2	8	15	33	.238	.317	.331	.648

Again, the caveat of small samples sizes. Clearly, Burnett has fared better against the Twins than Blackburn has against the Yanks.  Two home runs, four doubles and one triple in 145 plate appearances is outstanding and shows up in his .331 slugging percentage against.  Naturally, Joe Mauer has hit well against Burnett because Joe Mauer hits well against just about everybody.  Burnett's SO/BB ratio is right around his career mark of 2.22. Looking at Burnett's season splits can be an exercise in frustration:

Split	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
April/March	5	113	19	29	4	1	6	13	25	1.92	.257	.338	.469	.807
May	5	121	15	30	5	1	4	18	32	1.78	.248	.354	.405	.759
June	5	110	10	23	3	0	3	16	35	2.19	.209	.315	.318	.633
July	5	124	10	27	6	0	2	16	21	1.31	.218	.317	.315	.631
August	6	143	25	38	7	0	5	17	40	2.35	.266	.348	.420	.767
Sept/Oct	7	171	20	46	10	0	5	17	42	2.47	.269	.339	.415	.754

Nobody pitches consistently at the same level over the course of a season.  It's nearly impossible.  There's ups and downs like everything else in life. What's frustrating about Burnett is his walk totals.  Even at his most effective (June and July), Burnett was

still

walking 32 batters in 234 plate appearances. At times, his numbers just don't seem to match up right:  His best SO/BB ratio (Sept/Oct 2.47) yielded his

highest

batting average against.  His worst SO/BB ratio (July's 1.31) yielded his

best

OPS against. All of Burnett's numbers are up this season: his home runs per nine innings (HR/9), BB/9, and hits/9 are all higher than his career average (and undoubtedly raised his career average in the process).  At the time of his signing, no one expected him to be an ace, but the hope was that he would match the sub-4.00 ERA he had posted in two of the previous three seasons in Toronto. He hasn't.  It's hard to call Burnett a disappointment if you looked objectively at his numbers, but he hasn't lived up to the hopes.  A decent run in October could help alleviate those thoughts. Finally, let's look at the Twins splits against right-handers:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP as RH	161	1807	1652	222	409	75	17	46	209	115	337	.248	.301	.397	.698
vs RHP as LH	161	2550	2173	337	621	98	11	74	316	313	386	.286	.376	.443	.819
vs RHP	322	4357	3825	559	1030	173	28	120	525	428	723	.269	.345	.423	.768
vs LHP	235	1989	1783	258	509	98	12	52	245	157	298	.285	.344	.441	.785

Again, lefty splits added for context. The Yankees have a 69 point edge in OPS against righties over the Twins.  Not a huge amount but significant.  The Twins slugging percentage is pretty low, while their OBP is a decent .345.  With a little bit of patience, they should be able to get on base against Burnett but getting the big hit might be difficult if Burnett is spotting his pitches. The Twins as well have fared a bit better against lefties despite having lost to Sabathia Wednesday night.  Andy Pettitte will go in game three at the Metrodome on Sunday, which will surely be a challenge. Given the Twins history against Burnett and their low power numbers versus right-handers compared to the Yankees, you have to like the Yankees chances in game two.  The Twins best hope is to keep the game close through the middle innings and hope their bullpen can keep it close.  If Blackburn isn't fooling the Yankees hitters the second time through the order, they'll start chipping away and getting guys on base. At that point, it's all up to AJ Burnett.