DH Question Looms in the Off-Season

Tyler Kepner on the future of Hideki Matsui:

Matsui will be a free agent after the World Series, and the Yankees are eager to open up designated hitter as a place to rest veterans like third baseman Alex Rodriguez, catcher Jorge Posada, Jeter and perhaps left fielder Johnny Damon, who is also a free agent. Damon turns 36 on Thursday, and Matsui turns 36 next June. “I think we both would love to stay,” Damon said Friday. “I think I might understand the free-agency cycle more than he does, and you play it out and come the off-season, I think we’ll know early who’s here and who’s not. If he’s here, there’s a good chance that I’m back still. But regardless of where I am after Nov. 5, I’ll be a happy camper.”

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The Yankees have Rodriguez, Posada and Jeter under contract for next season, with a new deal for Jeter, who also turns 36 next June, looming. The designated hitter spot could be vital to keeping them all healthy and maximizing their effectiveness.

The Yankees will probably try to retain Damon on a short-term contract, though his agent, Scott Boras, could counter by reminding the Yankees that they gave Posada a four-year contract at the same age.

Rob Neyer picked up on this bit and responded:

Well, yes ... but there's something else, too, that Kepner touches on just tangentially: the Yankees are

old

. Now it seems that their American League pennant was inevitable, but was it really? Three of their best players were 35, and Jorge Posada was 37. All of them were better in 2009 than they'd been in 2008, and Posada was the only one who missed significant time because of injuries. That's not typically a recipe for success. Last winter, Brian Cashman's No. 1 mission was adding strikeout pitchers to his rotation (his No. 2 mission was signing the best-hitting free agent). This winter, I'll bet you a box of Cracker Jack that his No. 1 million will be getting younger in the lineup, however slightly. The Yankees will not be a

young

team in 2010. But they won't be quite as old, either, and that means one of the old-timers has to go.

I've been banging this drum for a little while but I'll get my sticks out again... The Yankees

are

old.  I, myself, was calling for Damon to be traded two years ago because it seemed like there was no way he was going to give the Yankees a good return on their investment. I was wrong. Damon has been far better offensively than anyone could have expected at this age.  Amazingly, Damon has put up better numbers for the Yankees over four years than he did for the Red Sox, although he did play centerfield (poorly) while in Boston. Johnny Damon is not a leftfielder much longer, though.  He may have a year left in him at the position.  I wouldn't be adverse to the Yankees giving Damon one more year, given that the best option on the market this winter is Matt Holliday, who will likely be grossly overpaid.  I don't think the Yankees want to sign Holliday to a Teixeira-like deal.  If he could be had for five years, that might be more reasonable. The bigger concern I have is this notion that the DH position should be used as a daily rest spot instead of having an actual hitter there. Sticking ARod or Posada or Jeter in the DH spot on an almost daily basis means that each day Molina/Cervelli or Jerry Hairston Jr. will be in the lineup.  And if not those guys, a player similar to their offense.  On days when all of the starters are in the field, the Yankees will have a weak hitting DH. Let's compare Matsui to those players:

Age	PA	H	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Hideki Matsui	35	526	125	28	90	64	.274	.367	.509	.876	128
Jose Molina	34	155	30	1	11	14	.217	.292	.268	.560	49
Jerry Hairston Jr	33	433	96	10	39	32	.251	.315	.394	.710	84

We can probably assume that Matsui won't hit quite as well in 2010.  His numbers against lefties alone would be tough to duplicate.  Even with a little regression, Matsui can project to have a pretty good year and be versatile against righties and lefties. Considering that caveat, there is still little reason to think the Yankee offense will benefit from a round-robin designated hitter.  If a player needs a day off, give them the day off.  If you want them to DH, give Matsui the day off as well.  Don't go into a season intentionally creating a weak spot in your lineup for the sake of resting other players. That doesn't make any sense. The Yankees can afford Hideki Matsui.  The question will be the length of the contract.  The same goes for Damon.  Unless Damon has suddenly changed strategies in his older age and wants to retire a Yankee, he will explore the market for a multi-year deal with his agent, Scott Boras.  Matsui may have a different approach and stick close to the Yankees for another year at the right price. Either way, unless the Yankees can find a young alternative for left field that can be had reasonably, there aren't many options out there that will be that much of an upgrade over Damon for one year.